There's this cautionary tale, in the finance world, that nearly any trader can tell you. It's about placing too much confidence in math and models. It's the story of Long Term Capital Management. The story begins back in the 90s. A group of math nerds figured out how to use a mathematical model to identify opportunities in the market, tiny price discrepancies, that they could bet big on. Those bets turned into big profits, for them and their clients. They were the toast of Wall Street; it looked like they'd solved the puzzle of risk-taking. But their overconfidence in their strategy led to one of the biggest financial implosions in U.S. history, and destabilized the entire market. On today's show, what happens when perfect math meets the mess of human nature? And what did we learn (and what did we not learn) from the legendary tale of Long Term Capital Management? This episode of Planet Money was hosted by Mary Childs and Jeff Guo. It was produced by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler and edited by Jess Jiang. It was fact-checked by Sierra Juarez and engineered by Robert Rodriguez. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer. Find more Planet Money: Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter. Listen free at these links: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the NPR app or anywhere you get podcasts. Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices NPR Privacy Policy

There has been chaotic uncertainty around billions of dollars allocated by Congress. The Trump administration ordered a pause on — and review of — certain types of federal assistance. A judge blocked that freeze. But reports continue to emerge that certain parts of the government were not getting their money. As a result, hundreds and hundreds of people have lost their jobs, clinics and daycares across the country have been left wondering if they'll have money to operate, retirees have worried about getting their payments. But the United States is a country of transparency. And if you know where to look, there is a way to cut through all the confusion. Because there's this one big pipe from the US Treasury through which most federal spending flows. So, today, we discover a way to go look at that money pipe. And we'll look at some of the people and the programs on the other end of that pipe. And we tell you about a tool (it's at The Hamilton Project! Right here.) that you can use to follow along from home, right now, as this gigantic federal spending story continues developing and developing.Find more Planet Money: Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter. Listen free at these links: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the NPR app or anywhere you get podcasts. Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices NPR Privacy Policy