Experts and pundits are notoriously bad at forecasting, in part because they aren't punished for bad predictions. Also, they tend to be deeply unscientific. The psychologist Philip Tetlock is finally turning prediction into a science -- and now even you could become a superforecaster.

Sure, we all want to make good personal decisions, but it doesn't always work out. That's where "temptation bundling" comes in.