If U.S. schoolteachers are indeed "just a little bit below average," it's not really their fault. So what should be done about it?

Experts and pundits are notoriously bad at forecasting, in part because they aren't punished for bad predictions. Also, they tend to be deeply unscientific. The psychologist Philip Tetlock is finally turning prediction into a science -- and now even you could become a superforecaster.