Today’s key word is inflation: companies are seeing it, consumers are experiencing it and Fed officials are calling for action to curve it. But the futures market says they won’t act anytime soon. Should you position for a long winter of high prices ahead? We’ll debate. Plus, the headline numbers may look good, but are retail sales actually falling? We’ll do some back of the envelope math to see what the data is telling us. And, in today’s Earnings Exchange: we’ll give you the action, the story & the trade in Target, TJX Companies and Lowe’s with results on deck.

Kelly questions whether the Fed can realistically afford to raise interest rates in this environment.