Fed Governor Christopher Waller says his base case is still “only” 75 basis points for this month’s rate hike. But are underwhelming bank earnings a bad sign? We’ll look at the tough spot the Fed & markets are in. Plus, Dan Yergin joins us with his take on whether or not inflation has peaked, as he’s warning investors about the future of copper and a deepening global energy crisis. And, Netflix is picking Microsoft to help it roll out ads. We’ll explain how this deal went down, and what it could mean for both companies.

Inflation soared to 9.1% in June, the fastest pace in 41 years. So why is the 10-year yield actually down today? We’ll look at the market-based inflation signals that have been dropping sharply, and could stay under pressure if the Fed does another large hike. Plus, David Zervos says the Fed has won “uber credibility” from their 75bps hike last month. But what do they need to do to keep that credibility? We’ll ask him. And, now that the CPI number is out of the way, markets can focus on earnings. We’ll get you ready for all the big names reporting tomorrow in Earnings Exchange.