GDP has contracted for the second straight quarter, but a recession has yet to be officially declared. Are investors focused on the wrong thing—and how should they position now? Amazon, Apple and ads—we parse the big trends in teach earnings and what those results reveal about the economy. And 3 Buys and a Bail: Food Edition. We head to the heartland where one trader is making big bets on agriculture…and shunning one delivery service.

With just an hour away until the Fed decision, we discuss what Powell’s gotten right, what he’s gotten wrong, and whether or not its rapid rate hikes are a huge policy mistake. And as pending home sales in June fell 20% compared to the previous year, the CEO of the country’s largest builder weighs in on the impact of the cooling housing market on her bottom line. Plus—ads, autos, and appliances. We get the trade on Meta, Ford, and Stanley Black and Decker ahead of earnings.