Today’s weak economic data is weighing heavily on stocks and yields as the 10-year falls below 4%for the first time since February. We’ll look at what it means for the Fed’s path forward. And in the largest East-West prisoner swap since the Cold War, U.S. journalist Evan Gershkovich is coming home. We’ll look at the nations and individuals involved, and the geopolitical impact with less than 100 days until the election.

We’re counting down to tomorrow’s Fed decision, where Powell is widely expected to signal that the first rate cut will come in September, but our market guest says investors are too focused on that, and not enough on what he sees as the biggest risk right now. Plus, the busiest week of tech earnings continues with Microsoft reporting after the bell. We’ll look at how to position ahead of the print and whether the broader pullback in tech is over. And Wall Street is waiting for Vice President Harris to pick her running mate. We’ll show you the shortlist, and what it means for the fundraising race.