In episode 489, we examine three factors that contributed to this week's big stock market declines, analyze whether a recession is imminent, and review David's recent portfolio changes. Topics covered include: The benefits of looking at market and economic trends monthlyHow bad was the recent U.S. employment report and what is the Sahm RuleWhat are leading economic indicators saying about recession riskWhy the Federal Reserve will be lowering its policy rate, leading to lower cash yieldsWhy the Japanese yen strengthened, leading to market turmoilWhy investors are rotating from large cap growth to small cap value stocksHow David locked in higher yields Sponsors NetSuite Monarch Money – Get an extended 30-day free trial Insiders Guide Email Newsletter Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes Transcript of Chair Powell’s FOMC Press Conference July 31, 2024—The Federal Reserve Goolsbee Says Fed Won’t Overreact to One Month’s Data by Catarina Saraiva and Ananya Chag—Bloomberg Congressional Budget Office Updates Baseline: Deficit Spending is 27 Percent Higher Than Previously Estimated—U.S. House Budget Committee Investments Mentioned Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) Vanguard Small Cap Value (VBR) iShares International Developed Small Cap Value Factor ETF (ISVL) Invesco BulletShares 2031 Corporate Bond ETF (BSCV) iShares Large Cap Max Buffer ETF (MAXJ) BlackRock AAA CLO ETF (CLOA) Related Episodes 485: Should You Invest in Defined Outcome (Buffer) ETFs? 476: Is Small Cap Dead? Why You Shouldn’t Abandon Small Company Stocks 472: Is the Economy as Bad as People Think? 464: More Ways to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall 463: How to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall 423: A “Safe” 6% Yield: The Case for Investment Grade CLOs 302: Investing is Not Knowing See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What we can monitor and do now in preparation for a 2030s depression, which may or may not arrive. Topics covered include: Why ITR Economics has been predicting a 2030s depression for over a decade.What are the early warning signs we can monitor for increasing risk of economic and financial turmoilWhat are U.S. and global population predictions by the Congressional Budget Office and the United NationsWhat is the status of Social Security and what would it take to make it more sustainableWhat are the impacts of a slowing or shrinking populationHow should we invest, and what other financial actions should we take in the face of long-term depression forecasts Sponsors Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off Monarch Money – Get an extended 30-day free trial Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes Top 5 Causes of the 2030s Great Depression—ITR Economics The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054—Congressional Budget Office Testimony on Social Security’s Finances—Congressional Budget Office World Population Prospects 2024—The United Nations World Population Prospects 2024: Graphs/Profiles—The United Nations America is uniquely ill-suited to handle a falling population—The Economist Suddenly There Aren’t Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed. by Greg Ip and Janet Adamy—The Wall Street Journal Related Episodes 479: National Debt Master Class Finale – What To Do 468: Lessons from Japan’s 34 Years of Stock Market Underperformance 395: How Population Trends Will Impact Growth, Inflation, Investing and Well Being See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.