The U.S has traditionally been a safe haven for investing, but that hasn't been the case in 2025. We explore three economic and narrative regimes and consider why we may be witnessing a shift after 12 years of U.S. outperformance. Topics covered include: What was the narrative and economic and financial performance from 1995-2001, 2002-2012, and 2012 -2024.How the performance of the U.S. dollar impacted returnsWhy did economic forecasters predict the U.S. national debt would be paid off in 2011, and why were they wrong?Signs that the current economic and financial narrative is shifting. Insiders Guide Email Newsletter Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan Outlook for the federal budget and implications for fiscal policy Before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. Senate January 25, 2001—The Federal Reserve Board Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product—FRED Economic Data Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers—FRED Economic Data Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events by Robert J. Shiller—Princeton University Press Donald Trump vs Mr Market by Tim Harford—The Financial Times Tourism boycott? Europe travel to US drops in wake of Trump presidency by Talyta França & Alessio Dell'Anna, Mert Can Yilmaz—euronews Trump’s Trade Offensive Threatens America’s Financial Primacy by Nick Timiraos, Jack Pitcher, and Chelsey Dulaney—The Wall Street Journal Related Episodes 519: Is This the End of Globalization and Free Trade? 380: How Stories Drive Our Happiness and Financial Success See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What will the impact be now that the U.S. has one of the highest tariff rates in the world? Topics covered include: Why the Trump administration raised tariffsHow the last round of U.S. tariffs led to higher prices and lower economic growthFour ways the world remains close to record connectivityWho have been the winners and losers from global tradeWhat will be the impact of this trade war Episode Sponsors Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off Insiders Guide Email Newsletter Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes The economic consequences of Mr Trump – looking for clarity in the tariffs chaos by Neil Shearing—Capital Economics Tariff rate, most favored nation, simple mean, all products (%)—World Bank Group Donald Trump’s tariffs will fix a broken system by Peter Navarro—The Financial Times DHL Global Connectedness Tracker—DHL Objective Knowledge: An Evolutionary Approach by Karl R. Popper—Oxford University Press GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$)—World Bank Group JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ, GLOBALIZATION AND ITS DISCONTENTS REVISITED: ANTI-GLOBALIZATION IN THE ERA OF TRUMP, NEW YORK: W.W. NORTON & COMPANY, 2018 by Lino Sau—Annals of the Fondazione Luigi Einaudi FIFTY YEARS OF GROWTH IN AMERICAN CONSUMPTION, INCOME, AND WAGES by Bruce Sacerdote—National Bureau of Economic Research Real Median Household Income in the United States—FRED Employed full time: Median usual weekly real earnings: Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over—FRED Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food in U.S. City Average/Median Household Income in the United States—FRED Trump’s Love for Tariffs Began in Japan’s ’80s Boom By Jim Tankersley and Mark Landler—The New York Times Related Episodes 515: Tariffs and the Mar-a-Lago Accord: What Trump Really Wants 516: What Trump Wants Part 2 – How Trade Deficits and Capital Flows Can Harm or Help Countries 427: Did the Tariffs Work? The Trade War Five Years Later 212: Trade Wars Increase Prices and Poverty See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.