#560: Bill Bengen, the former rocket scientist who discovered the "4 percent rule" of retirement planning, joins us at the Bogleheads conference in Minnesota. Bengen clarifies that calling it a "rule" is misleading since it doesn't fit everyone's situation. The 4 percent figure came from studying the worst-case scenario since 1926, when someone who retired in 1968 could only safely withdraw 4.2 percent annually. Out of 400+ retirees in his database, that was the only one who had such a low safe withdrawal rate — most could take out much more. Recent research has pushed the "safe" withdrawal rate closer to 5 percent. But Bengen identifies eight key factors that affect how much you can withdraw, including how long you'll be retired and whether you're drawing from taxable or tax-deferred accounts. For early retirees planning for 50-60 years, Bengen says the safe withdrawal rate asymptotically approaches 4.2 percent — meaning even with an infinite time horizon, it won't drop below that. He thinks the common advice to use 3 percent for early retirement is unnecessarily conservative. Bengen shares what he calls the "four free lunches" in retirement planning: 1. Using an equity glide path (reducing stocks at retirement, then increasing later) 2. Diversification across asset classes 3. Regular portfolio rebalancing 4. Slightly overweighting higher-returning assets like small-cap stocks When it comes to market drops versus inflation, Bengen has clear advice: Don't panic during bear markets — they typically recover. But if you hit extended high inflation early in retirement, it's time to "head for the bunkers" and cut expenses drastically. Beyond finance, Bengen shares his excitement about space exploration as a former rocket scientist who graduated from MIT just months before the moon landing. He hopes to live long enough to see humans reach Mars and believes space tourism helps people appreciate Earth's beauty and fragility. The interview ends with a light-hearted discussion about whether Pluto should still be considered a planet (Bengen still calls it one, out of habit) and speculation about future tourism to Saturn's moon Titan once the sun's expansion makes it warmer in a few hundred million years. Timestamps: Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths. 0:00 Paula introduces Bill Bengen, creator of the 4% withdrawal rule 2:19 Bengen explains how the 4% rule represents a worst-case scenario from 1968 10:14 Bengen warns against using a fixed percentage withdrawal method, as it could lead to dangerously low income in down markets 17:32 Discussion of the "smile" pattern in retirement spending - high at start, dips in middle, rises at end for medical costs 23:22 Bengen shares the four "free lunches" in retirement planning, including equity glide path and diversification 34:25 Conversation shifts to bonds and stocks no longer being inversely correlated in 2022 35:44 Deep dive into Black Swan events and how to prepare for unpredictable market crashes 42:14 Bengen advises when to panic (inflation) and when not to panic (bear markets) during retirement 49:20 Analysis of spending categories that rise faster than inflation, like healthcare and housing 51:27 Bengen discusses graduating MIT in 1969, just before the moon landing 51:56 Conversation turns to current space exploration and plans for Mars missions 53:39 Bengen speculates about future tourism to Saturn's moon Titan 54:17 Light-hearted debate about Pluto's planetary status Resource Mentioned https://affordanything.com/377-how-i-discovered-the-4-percent-retirement-rule-with-bill-bengen For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode560 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

#558: What happens when you spend three decades talking to retirement experts? You learn that most of what people think they know about retirement planning is oversimplified or wrong. Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning at Morningstar, joins us on the Afford Anything podcast to share what she's discovered after 31 years of interviewing experts across personal finance, tax planning, and Social Security. One key insight: The standard advice about withdrawing 4 percent of your portfolio annually in retirement misses the mark. Real-life spending isn't that simple. In your 60s, you might spend more on travel. By your 80s, healthcare costs often rise. Benz suggests creating separate "pots" of money for different purposes - like a travel fund you aim to deplete within your first decade of retirement. Want to protect against market crashes early in retirement? Benz recommends keeping 5-8 years of planned withdrawals in cash and high-quality bonds. This prevents having to sell stocks during downturns. We talk about why retirement doesn't need to be all-or-nothing. Instead of going from 40 hours to zero, Benz describes how many people benefit from a phased approach. This might mean keeping the parts of your job you enjoy while dropping the rest, or finding new ways to use your skills. The conversation shifts to housing choices. While many assume retirees move to Florida or Arizona, the data shows most stay put. Those who do move often end up near their oldest daughter. And while single-family homes tend to make people happier until around age 75, apartment dwellers report more satisfaction after that — largely due to increased social interaction. Benz shares her own retirement planning process. Despite being a retirement expert herself, she works with an hourly financial planner who tells her she'll likely struggle to spend as much as she could in retirement. It's a common problem — after decades of saving habits, many retirees find it psychologically difficult to spend their money. The interview wraps up with a discussion about relationships in retirement. Research shows that while older adults often have smaller social circles, these relationships tend to be deeper and more meaningful. They've pruned away the "good enough" friendships to focus on their closest connections. Benz's insights come from her new book "How to Retire" and her work at Morningstar, where she creates free model portfolios and hosts The Long View podcast. Beyond the financial aspects, she emphasizes that successful retirement planning involves thinking about purpose, relationships, and how you want to spend your days — not just your money. Timestamps: Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths. 0:00 What 30 years of retirement expert interviews reveal 1:34 Why spending in retirement is harder than saving for it 3:12 Beyond money: need purpose, not just leisure 4:00 The challenge: planning for an unknown time horizon 8:52 Should market fears delay your retirement? 13:42 How much cash and bonds to keep safe 15:49 When bonds don't protect against stock crashes 18:33 Phased retirement: keep what you love, drop what you don't 29:24 Take mini-retirements throughout your career 33:20 Spending shifts: from travel to healthcare costs 46:14 Why most retirees don't actually move 57:31 After 75, apartment living beats houses 1:00:42 Friendship patterns change: quality over quantity 1:04:58 Virtual vs real-life connections 1:06:25 Where to find more info For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode558 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices