Rick Selvala is the co-founder and CEO of Harvest Volatility, a ten-year old manager of a variety of volatility strategies that oversees $13 billion in assets. After starting his career in the Treasury department at General Motors in the mid 1980s, Rick has spent nearly three decades trading derivatives on the sell side and buy side. Rick has an uncanny ability to break down this complicated investment area and make it sound simple. Our conversation discusses the world of volatility, including intelligent uses of derivatives, overcoming headline risk, characteristics of successful traders, assessment of alpha, the current volatility environment, and strategies that capture returns.  His insights left me thinking twice about some of the assumptions my System 1 brain had formed about volatility. Time for System 2 to go to work. DONATE TO CYCLE FOR SURVIVAL, http://mskcc.convio.net/goto/ted. Learn More Join Ted's mailing list at CapitalAllocatorsPodcast.com Write a review on iTunes Follow Ted on twitter at @tseides For more episodes go to CapitalAllocatorsPodcast.com/Podcast   Show Notes DONATE TO CYCLE FOR SURVIVAL, http://mskcc.convio.net/goto/ted. 3:03 – Rick’s path to Harvest 5:17 – How should one think about volatility as an asset class 7:56 – Volatility as a path to enhance yield 11:07 – Is there a programmatic way to implement 12:55 – Volatility as a path for insurance 15:45 – Where do people go wrong with leverage 18:28 – What level of understanding of this space do clients really have 21:58 – How would someone express the idea that volatility is cheap in the market             22:04 – Bill Spitz podcast episode 24:24 – What strategies could managers take advantage of in a low volatility environment 26:01 – How does Rick asses if someone is a good trader 27:32 – How do you identify firms that are too bold 29:26 – Does the community have a good sense of whether traders are acting responsibly 30:08 – How do you determine if a manager is outperforming 32:11 – Is there a structural return from selling insurance to the market 34:13 – Have computer systems changed trading in the derivatives market 35:14 – Taking a look at the current environment 38:43 – Recent market turmoil 39:58 – Are quants impacting market volatility 41:26 – What’s next on the frontier for Harvest 45:02 – Closing questions

Annie Duke is a renown public speaker and decision strategist. For two decades, she was one of the top poker players in the world, including winning a World Series of Poker bracelet and the $2 million winner-take-all WSOP Tournament of Champions. Her study of the science of smart decision-making began with a National Science Foundation Fellowship, which she used study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania.  Among her charity work and television appearances, Annie was a runner-up to Joan Rivers on Celebrity Apprentice, during which she raised $700,000 for Refugees International. She is a natural teacher and storyteller with an active mind that constantly searches for accurate truth. I highly recommend Annie’s new book, Thinking in Bets, which comes out this week. In her life after poker, she is a featured speaker, writes a newsletter and a blog, and advises companies on improving their decision-making process. Have a look at her website, annieduke.com, for more information. Our conversation discusses Annie’s path from an Ivy League education to professional poker, the nature of a bet, how we form beliefs, why we make bad decisions, and what we can do to improve our decision-making process. Towards the end, we also talk about bankroll management, poker faces, and advice she would give the President on how to make better decisions.   For more episodes go to CapitalAllocatorsPodcast.com/Podcast Write a review on iTunes Follow Ted on twitter at @tseides Join Ted’s mailing list at CapitalAllocatorsPodcast.com   Show Notes 2:30 – Annie’s path through the poker world  6:05 – Her transition into teaching and the lesson of tilt  11:57 – How do you apply the concepts of betting and gambling broadly to decision making  13:35 – What is it about the science of the brain that prevents us from making good decisions             14:17 – Stumbling on Happiness             14:19 – Dan Gilbert Ted Talk             15:44 – Kluge: The Haphazard Evolution of the Human Mind  18:50 – Motivated reasoning  21:10 – Is there anything we can do to fix our decision-making biases (wanna bet)  28:05 – Other devices to improve our decision-making  32:29 – Value of a decision group             33:16 – Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction 34:00 – Mertonian Norms, CUDOS  40:27 – Mental time travel (Marty McFly from Back to the Future)             42:55 – Jerry Seinfeld – Night Guy vs Morning Guy  44:55 – Applying these tools and the parallels between poker and investing  48:59 – Reading poker faces             49:21 – Joe Navarro books             49:34 – Joe Navarro Psychology Today  52:50 – What advice would Annie give President Trump in terms of improving his decision-making process  53:52 – Favorite sports moment  55:45 – What teaching from Annie’s parents has most stayed with her  56:08 – What information does Annie read that a lot of people might not know about that is valuable             56:18 – The Greatest Show on Earth: The Evidence for Evolution             56:19 – Why Evolution Is True 56:58 – What life lesson does Annie wish she knew earlier in life 58:28 – Looking ahead, what advice would Annie give herself today from a ripe old age