Back in the 1700s, in a spa town outside of London, Thomas Bayes, a Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician, invented a formula that lets you figure out how likely something is to happen based on what you already know. It changed the world. Today, pollsters use it to forecast election results and bookies to predict Super Bowl scores. For neuroscientists, it explains how our brains work; for computer scientists, it's the principle behind artificial intelligence. In this episode, we explore the modern-day applications of this game-changing theorem with the help of Tom Chivers, author of the new book "Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World." 🎙️ Follow The Next Big Idea Daily on Apple Podcasts or Spotify 🎁 Get 20% off a Next Big Idea Club membership when you use code PODCAST at nextbigideaclub.com

Bad news: 93% of Americans are metabolically unhealthy. Their bodies struggle to convert food into the energy their cells need. And this fuel shortage underlies all sorts of conditions, from diabetes and cancer to insomnia and erectile dysfunction. Good news: Simple changes to how we eat and exercise can dramatically improve our metabolic health. This is the thesis of “Good Energy: The Surprising Connection Between Metabolism and Limitless Health” by Casey Means. A Stanford-trained physician, Casey grew disillusioned with conventional healthcare when she realized that many doctors are great at prescribing pills and performing surgeries but hopeless when it comes to addressing root causes. This led her to leave traditional medicine and focus on combating metabolic dysfunction, which she believes is at the heart of America’s health crisis. Today on the show, she tells Rufus about her journey, explains why she thinks the medical system fails patients, and shares the simple biomarkers that you should check to see if you’re at risk for a deadly disease. 📱 This is part one of our interview with Casey. Part two will be available here on Thursday. But if you can't wait that long, you can listen right now on the Next Big Idea app: https://nextbigideaclub.com/app/