0:00 Besties discuss the one-month hiatus 7:03 Markets update: Fed decisions, goals, macro factors, root causes 32:19 Earnings estimate skepticism, labor force, job openings 47:17 How startups should think about the next 18-36 months 56:20 Crypto collapse, next shoe(s) to drop 1:08:41 Russia/Ukraine endgame, escalation, scrutinizing US alliances, sanctions failing 1:33:12 Will 2024 be Biden vs. Trump? Could it be DeSantis vs. Newsom? Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPY:NYSEARCA https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/10/consumer-price-index-may-2022.html https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/09/tc-energy-terminates-keystone-xl-pipeline-project.html https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-talks-with-allies-russian-oil-price-cap-says-yellen-2022-06-20/ https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1Y https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-bls-price-checkers-who-determine-cpi-11652132333 https://www.chicagofed.org/research/dual-mandate/dual-mandate https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/top_stories/right_direction_wrong_track_jun20 https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3525909-56-percent-in-new-poll-believe-us-is-in-recession/ https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reducing-inflation-come-great-cost-stagflation-ray-dalio https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/job-offers https://www.socialcapital.com/ideas/2021-annual-letter https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/10/tiger-global-hit-by-17b-hedge-fund-losses-has-nearly-depleted-its-latest-vc-fund https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin https://www.coinbase.com/price/ethereum https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/17/three-arrows-capitalconfirms-heavy-losses-from-lunas-collapse-exploring-potential-options-report https://www.ft.com/content/19c27ae1-ae72-4668-b3a9-162adc27dffc https://decrypt.co/103489/solend-whale-108m-loan-nearly-crashed-solana https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-employee-nft-marketplace-charged-first-ever-digital-asset-insider-trading-scheme https://www.ft.com/content/4e211784-83eb-49a2-ba39-8976345a88d5 https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/10/ukraine-ammunition-donbas-russia/ https://www.americanpurpose.com/blog/fukuyama/why-ukraine-will-win/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-02/london-listed-russian-stocks-erase-570-billion-in-two-weeks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-20/ruble-soars-to-seven-year-high-in-challenge-to-bank-of-russia https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/23/russias-ruble-is-at-strongest-level-in-7-years-despite-sanctions.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-push-for-exceptions-in-europes-sanctions-on-russian-oil-gains-traction-11655913796 https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/correction-germany-nuclear-shutdown-story-82051054 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-23/catl-unveils-ev-battery-with-one-charge-range-of-1-000-kms https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/06/why-ron-desantis-can-beat-trump-in-2024.html

This talk was recorded LIVE at the All-In Summit in Miami and included slides. To watch on YouTube, check out our All-In Summit playlist: https://bit.ly/aisytplaylist 0:00 Antonio Gracias joins to talk: Tesla's early days, investing in Elon, macroeconomic outlook, ROIC, importance of energy independence, future of manufacturing, financial-ization of the P&L & more 22:35 Q: How has the poker game influenced your decision making in business and life? 29:33 Q: What was the scariest step of becoming a first-time fund manager? 32:34 Q: Crypto market unwinding & how it relates to the money supply 35:57 Q: Current pre-seed / seed valuations & metrics 38:58 Q: When investing in early-stage SaaS companies, how to find outliers? 42:11 Q: What would you do if dropped in the middle of Kansas at age 25 with no resources? 44:46 Q: Where will the next disruptions in industrial automation come from & how will the US hit economies of scale in semiconductor manufacturing 47:02 Q: Any plans for All-In Media? 50:02 Q: US strategy in the Russia/Ukraine War 54:19 Q: How have your first impressions changed as you've matured in your career, and whose first impressions have stood out to you the most? 58:29 Q: Are you interested in crypto micropayments? 1:00:55 Q: Biggest mistakes of your career that you've learned the most from? 1:09:54 Q: What impact could tech have on political discourse? What does a viable path forward look like? 1:15:36 Q: Are remote / distributed startup systems viable coming out of the pandemic? 1:19:41 Q: Advice for non-technical people trying to get into the startup world? 1:24:44 Q: Thoughts on the potential consumer credit crisis? 1:26:17 Lightning round: What problem do you most want to solve right now? All-In consortium? Can SMBs democratize their own labor supply? How to get more investors interested in hardware? Will this be a relatively short recession? Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect