(0:00) Ray Dalio joins Friedberg!
(0:50) The current US fiscal situation
(6:23) Breaking down "The Big Debt Cycle," a potential US debt spiral, and the impact on real wealth
(24:54) USD vs other currencies and assets, best hedges against the dollar
(33:20) Portfolio construction, how China increases risk for US AI companies, why this market reminds Ray of 1998-1999
(41:45) How the US can avoid a debt crisis
(53:29) DOGE, Trump, and AI's greatest risk
(1:05:31) Chances of conflict between the US and China
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Referenced in the show:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp
https://www.crfb.org/press-releases/treasury-confirms-calendar-year-2024-deficit-tops-20-trillion
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61172
https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/2bstne1l09npgdk1s5yww/corner-office/ray-dalio-makes-his-exit-from-bridgewater
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-september-2024
https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertfarrington/2024/11/08/fed-cut-interest-rates-so-why-do-mortgage-rates-keep-climbing
https://www.chathamfinancial.com/insights/fomc-recap-december-2024
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/14/a-global-bond-sell-off-is-deepening-as-hopes-for-multiple-fed-rate-cuts-fizzle.html